NFL Offseason 2012 Part III: Running Backs

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Which Team Will Land Their Franchise-Back?

Part II: Quarterbacks

In a star-studded free agency class, the running back position is well represented.

Lets get right to it!

 

Ray Rice Baltimore Ravens

Ray Rice

1.) Ray Rice:

Rice is arguably the best all-around running back in the NFL. The Ravens will do everything they can to keep Rice a Raven for life.

Rice will be looking for a long-term contract yet he would not mind signing the franchise tag if the Ravens were to offer it.

The franchise tag is a tender the team puts on their player of choice if they can not reach a long-term deal.

For those who are not familiar with the Franchise tag here is a good explanation of it:

“franchise player must be offered a one-year contract for an amount no less than the average of the top five salaries at the player’s position as of a date in April of the current year in which the tag will apply, or 120 percent of the player’s previous year’s salary, whichever is greater. Exclusive franchise players cannot negotiate with other teams.” — Wikipedia

2.) Matt Forte:

Matt Forte Chicago Bears

Matt Forte

During the season we heard grumblings from Forte’s camp about his contract, it is no secret he is unhappy and wants to get paid.

I DON’T BLAME HIM

The Bears literally ran their offense around Matt Forte and when he went down with an injury, the offense struggled mightily.

Just like Rice, Forte is a great all-around back. He runs inside and outside very well, can catch the ball out of the backfield, and can pass protect very well which is a very under-rated and crucial skill for a running back to learn.

Forte will also probably get the franchise tag.

However, I see Forte really pushing for a long-term deal here. If he does not get one we can have a very ugly situation in Chicago,  the Bears can not afford to lose their star back.

Marshawn Lynch

Marshawn Lynch

3.) Marshawn Lynch:

One of the best nicknames given to running back in a long-time “Beast Mode”

Make no mistake about it, Lynch is more than just a cool nickname, he is a old-school running back with power that never goes down on the first two hits he receives.

Despite suffering an early injury, Lynch came back strong and average 105 yards per game for the remainder of the season and had some highlight runs. Seattle needs to keep Lynch, I expect them to offer Lynch a 3-4 year deal for him to stay.

Lynch is the only recognizable player the Seahawks have and they really base their offense around his running prowess.

4.) Peyton Hillis:

Peyton Hillis

Peyton Hillis

The Madden curse claims another football player.

Hillis was very ineffective this year when healthy, than you add the slew of injuries he suffered throughout the year and you have a horrible negotiating angle for a long-term contract.

He also was in the Browns ”doghouse” (not seeing eye-to-eye with his coaches) during the season.

In short, it was very a frustrating and unimpressive year for Hillis.

If Hillis hits the open  market, I do not expect him to see big offers, for someone who only average 3.6 yards per carry.

Also big backs seem to have a shorter lifespan in the NFL

Mike Tolbert

Mike Tolbert

5.) Mike Tolbert:

Tolbert is an excellent utility back that can do a little bit of everything.

He specializes in short-yardage situations yet, he can make catches out of the backfield and is a tough runner to bring down in space. Tolbert is one of the most under-rated running backs in the NFL and his return to San Diego is possible but I think unlikely.

San Diego likes the combo of Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert, however they also have full-back Jacob Hester who is very similar to Tolbert and can play the same role Tolbert has this past season in San Diego’s offense.

Tolbert will want to get paid and I don’t see him maximizing his value in San Diego.

The Dallas Cowboys in my opinion would be a solid fit to go along with DeMarco Murray.

6.) Arian Foster (Restricted):

Arian Foster Houston Texans

Arian Foster

Obviously Arian Foster is one of the best running backs in the NFL, so why do I have him as the #6 Free Agent?

Well that is because he is a restricted free agent. A restricted Free Agent is a player that can be signed by another team only if the team he is currently on does not match the offer given.

Also, the Texans would receive a 1st-round pick as compensation for losing Foster.

Foster is great, but a 1st round pick being traded for a running back is just a bad deal, especially when you can find a solid running back talent in the draft in the 3rd-4th rounds. So I do not see any team trying to sign away Foster, and if they try I do not see Houston letting him walk away.

Honorable Mention(s):

Michael Bush/BenJarvis Green-Ellis:

Bush showed flashes of dominance this season when McFadden went down with a foot injury. The production was almost unnoticeable between the two. Bush is a powerful runner and a perfect compliment to McFadden in the back-field.

There will be high interest if Bush hits the open market.

There is literally a 50/50 chance Bush stays or signs elsewhere. The Raiders want to keep him so they have a more than capable back-up for the injury prone McFadden. However, if the asking price is too high I can see the Raiders addressing their needs for a back-up running back in the draft.

With their limited picks in the draft, this could lean towards giving Bush a nice pay-day.

As for the “Law Firm” I see him signing else where. The Patriots drafted running backs Stephen Ridley and Shane Vereen in the 2011 draft so this does make BenJarvis very expendable.

To his credit, Green-Ellis was solid in short yardage conversions and gave the Patriots a physical-style running attitude when needed. Unfortunately for Green-Ellis, I believe he just does not fit into what the Patriots are trying to do with their offense and with the depth they already have at running back, Green-Ellis is expendable.

Stay tuned for my next Article:  NFL Offseason 2012 Part IV: Wide Receivers

Please Follow me on Twitter @Peterd024

AFC Championship Breakdown: Ravens At Patriots

The top 2 seeds in the AFC meet for the chance to go to the Super Bowl.

 

I am very excited to see this matchup so I will breakdown this game by position.

Quarterback: Advantage Patriots

This is not even close. Tom Brady is the best ever (in my opinion) so stacking him up against Joe Flacco is unfair to say the least.

Brady Needs To Have a Great Game

Take it from a Jet fan, Tom Brady rarely loses in the playoffs at home. Brady is one of the clutchest quarterbacks ever and it will take a great effort to stop him and come away with a victory.

Brady has been awesome all year and has carried the Patriots to where they are now. Look for Brady to throw a lot of short passes to offset the Ravens pressure and if the Ravens dare sit back and play coverage look for Brady to absolutely pick them apart.

Flacco has one advantage, he will not be asked to do as much as Brady (for good reason). Flacco just needs to be efficient and manage the game. Do not turn the ball over to the Patriots in your own territory because if that happens look for the Patriots to destroy the Ravens.

Running Backs: Advantage Ravens

Clearly, this is the only offensive category where the Ravens are better than the Patriots.

It is also the only way the Ravens can win this game.

Rice Needs To Flex His Muscle To Go To Indianapolis

Ray Rice MUST get over 25 carries for the Ravens to win, Houston did an excellent job on containing Rice and Belichek will find a way to contain him.

Despite that, Rice must be force-fed the ball, your best defense against Brady is to keep him on the sidelines. The Ravens need to go back to the formula that got them a victory against the Patriots a couple of years back when Ray Rice ran through the Patriots defense at will.

On the other hand, Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead will be factors just to keep the Ravens off-balanced on defense. Look for screens to Woodhead to expose the Ravens blitz and Green-Ellis on short-yardage situations to get it done.

Wide Receivers: Advantage Patriots

Wes Welker is a beast we all know that but what we don’t know is how he will be used in this matchup. Brady is great at seeing the defense and taking what they give him.

The Patriots have great route-runners at the wide receiver position and there could be an Ochocinco sighting .

In fact, I believe Ochocinco will have over 60 yards receiving and a touchdown. He is the only player at this position that I believe can consistently beat man coverage down the field. Especially with all the attention Welker and Gronk will be getting, I just think it is Ocho’s time.

On the other side of the ball, the Ravens have solid options on the outside also. With a terrible secondary, this receiving core of Boldin and Torrey Smith can have a big game.

Boldin needs to make catches over the middle and move the chains, while Smith goes over the top for the big plays. Smith is critical for this team’s success, if he can “take the top off the defense” it will open up the running game for Rice.

Boldin and Smith will have their chances to make big plays.

The question is will they be able to capitalize on their opportunities?

Tight Ends: Advantage Patriots

Gronk And Hernandez Are The Keys To Patriots Success

Again this one is not even close.

Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are matchup nightmares and production machines. The Ravens will have trouble matching up with these guys, especially since their linebackers are better suited against the run game than the pass.

You can not cover both of them.

Gronk will demand double coverage in the middle so Hernandez will see single coverage and unless Ed Reed plays, I like his chances.

David Pitta and Ed Dickson for the Ravens are decent tight ends. Both are good blockers with decent hands.

Pitta and Dickson along with Boldin, must make catches to move the chains, thereby backing the Patriots off the run game. The Patriot linebackers are also vulnerable to the pass so unlike the Texans game, Flacco must find his tight ends in this game to have success.

Offensive Line: Advantage Patriots

The only reason I give the Patriots offensive line an edge is because of the signal caller behind them. Brady is very tough to sack because of his awareness in the pocket and his quick reads.

Also, the Ravens offensive line looked terrible against the Texans. Granted, the Patriots have a much softer defense, but their scheme will make up for their lack of talent. I have serious questions about the Ravens being able to protect Joe Flacco, especially if the run game has a slow start.

Defensive Line: Advantage Baltimore

The Ravens have an outstanding front with Ngata and Suggs. Both players will need to be disruptive in order to have a chance against Brady.

One stat that blew my mind from last weeks game against the Texans is that the Texans did not allow one sack. With all the pressure and talent on the defensive front the Ravens could not mount a pass rush to sack rookie quarterback TJ Yates?

You can not beat the Patriots if you do not hit Tom Brady; he is just too damn good. Despite last week’s performance, this defensive front is great and I can see them getting pressure on Brady.

One player on the Patriots defensive front needs to have a GREAT game.

Vince Wilfork.

He is the anchor to the patriots 3-4 scheme, and he is their best defender against the run. He will need to be at his best to stop the Ravens rushing attack.

Which means clogging up the line for Jerod Mayo to make tackles as well as creating havoc in the Ravens backfield.

If you hear Jerod Mayo’s name a lot in this game, that means Wilfork is doing his job.

Linebackers: Advantage Ravens

Ray Lewis is still a beast and he is still one of the best linebackers in the

Lewis Needs To Hit Brady To Get The Victory

NFL. Expect a lot of pressure from Ray up the middle to disrupt Brady. The one thing about Brady is that if you get pressure on him up the middle you can create mistakes.

Ray Lewis needs to play a fast and smart game because Brady will be doing everything he can to counter what Lewis is doing and should be a great chess match between two Hall of Famers.

From the Patriots perspective, they need to use their linebacker blitzes to confuse Flacco. The one advantage the Patriots defense has is Flacco’s inexperience.

Although Flacco is in his 4th year, he still can be confused with defensive looks he has not seen before. Who better to devise those schemes than Mr. Bill Belichek?

But that is IF the Patriots can stop Ray Rice.

Rob Ninkovich,Jermaine Cunningham and Jerod Mayo need have an excellent day stopping the run. If they can do that, look for exotic linebacker blitzes to confuse and force Flacco into making a mistake.

Secondary: Advantage Ravens

That is IF Ed Reed plays.

Without Reed over the top, Brady will pick apart the secondary and have a

The X-Factor

field day against the Ravens in the passing game. I believe Ed Reed is the X-Factor in this game. His presence alone will force adjustments Tom Brady will have to make.

Everyone will focus on Ray Lewis vs Tom Brady, but believe me it is Ed Reed vs Tom Brady. Especially since the Patriots have become such a passing team, Reed’s importance can not be overlooked.

The Patriots will have to contain Torrey Smith and keep Boldin away from the middle of the field. If they can shut down Smith over the top and squeeze down on the Ravens passing attack like the Texans did, then the Patriots will have great success.

Kyle Arrington needs to have a great game. He led the Patriots with 7 interceptions this season and needs to be able to shut down Torrey Smith.

Special Teams: Even

I do not see an advantage from the special teams aspect of the game. Both kickers, Gostowski and Cundiff, are great long distance kickers and very accurate.

Also both punters Zoltan Mesko (AWESOME first name)  and Sam Koch are great punters and have consistently switched field positions for their teams all season long.

In the return game, I do not see an edge for either team. Both teams do not have “specialists” on their teams that have had consistent success returning punts or kicks.

In the end, I see the Patriots winning this game. Although the Jet fan in me wants to see Brady get blindsided by Terrell Suggs or Ray Lewis endless amount of times, I just do not see that happening. The Ravens offense is just too inconsistent. Patriots win, 28-10.

Who Wants It More?

Ravens Escape, Defeat Texans 20-13

Ravens Defense

The Ravens forced 4 turnovers and behind a solid defenisve showing defeated the Houston Texans.

Before I give credit to the Ravens, I have to give an enourmous amount of credit to the Texans. The Texans sacked Flacco 5 times and Arian Foster was an absolute beast today.

The Texans could just not overcome the turnovers they committed and that was their undoing in this game. Off 4 turnovers the Ravens scored 17 points and that was the difference in the game.

I was so impressed with J.J Watt and the rest of the Texans defense. I actually feel bad for the Texans defense. They were all over the place and completely shut down Ray Rice today.

However, the Ravens defense was also excellent today. They forced rookie quarterback TJ Yates into bad decisions, picking him off three times and containing Andre Johnson.

Despite not being able to consistently stop Foster, the Ravens defense completely stopped Yates and the passing attack.

With the a softer defense coming up next in New England, I look for the Ravens to do everything necessary to get Ray Rice going. Rice is their best asset on offense and their best chance of defeating the Patriots.

Rice was limited to 21 carries and 60 yards rushing today, only a 2.9 yards per rush, that will not get it done against New England.

Flacco was under pressure all day, he threw for 176 yards with 2 touchdowns but at times looked very bad today.

Cornerback Lardarius Webb was fantastic today with 4 tackles, 4 passes defensed and two interceptions.

Finally, the health of Ed Reed is critical for the Ravens defense. He is the X-Factor for this Ravens defense against the Patriots. I look forward to this matchup between Reed and Brady, two of the best at their position of all-time.

Reed Is The X-Factor Against Tom Brady