2012 Election Countdown Electoral Map (41 Days)
September 26, 2012 Leave a Comment
So it is 41 days until election day. Now since we are obviously getting pretty close, I personally think this is the time of the election season that is the most exciting. Being the political geek that I am, I downloaded an app on my phone where I can make my own electoral maps. So from now until election day I am going to try to give you real-time updates on any electoral changes and any major election news, that could tip the balance of the election.
So this is the first electoral map I have made. I based it on the most recent poll numbers, personal opinion, and other electoral maps. As of now it seems to be a landslide in Obama’s favor at 343 Obama and 195 Romney.
Now the numbers are constantly changing. Please take into account that the map I made is solely based on numbers and projected electoral maps from all around the media. The only personal opinion I may have put in, was the fact that I combined all the maps and numbers instead of just sticking with one. Which means I choose specific state predictions based on which maps I thought had the most accurate predictions.
A week ago the map was a lot closer, but this map is really based on the most recent polling numbers coming in from Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, New Mexico, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The map below is an electoral map from exactly a week ago. It really shows how quickly the polls can change and how much the news cycle that occurs between polls can change the map. The map below was not made by me it was just simply a projected map from a week ago. It shows the numbers being much closer at Obama 308 and Romney 230.
What’s the explanation?
Now many of the pollsters and opinion makers point to the 47% video that came out citing the opinion that Romney may be disconnected from the voters. Others say that this could be Obama pulling away, and the election is all but won. I kind of agree with the former. I think this noticeable change in the electoral map is just indicative of a particularly bad news cycle for Mitt Romney. The 47% video and other verbal gaffs may have a direct correlation to the drastic number change. It certainly does not indicate Obama pulling away.
Still I honestly don’t think the map I made is necessarily accurate to how America is actually going to vote in 41 days. For example a commentator on CNN said the recent polling numbers indicate that Obama is pulling away from Romney and might not comeback. I disagree completely, although there are only 41 days left, that is still a very long time. We have to go through the debates which could create a huge swing in electoral polling numbers. The attack ads which have already started, will only get more vicious from both sides and have always shown to give artificial bumps in numbers. Finally the candidates still have a lot of time to “mess up” some how.
My conclusion is that this is still a very close election, numbers right now are so scattered, that polls change basically by the day. It isn’t until about two weeks before the election when the numbers begin to get “official”. My opinion is, a week from today the numbers will normalize and the numbers will go back to what they where on September 18th or could even indicate a closer match up. We will see, the maps and numbers could change completely, no one really knows at this point.