Fantasy Baseball With PhDinWeed, Issue 2, 1B Rankings
February 27, 2012 5 Comments
Hello, fellow fantasy nerds. Let’s get right to it, shall we? Below are my rankings for 1B. If you missed my catcher rankings, you can see them here. Please note that in this section, I am only including players who either played 1B as their PRIMARY position last year, or are expected to this year. I am not including players like Carlos Santana or Mark Reynolds.ELITE
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
The 29 year-old Cabrera should challenge Albert Pujols as the overall #1 pick in most fantasy drafts. He had a stellar 2011, playing in 161 games and raking to the tune of .344/30/105. He also walked over 100 times, leading to an insane .448 OBP. Of course, everyone knows the Tigers signed Prince Fielder as a free agent, so Cabrera’s shift to 3B makes him, in my opinion, the best option at either 1B or 3B. Keep in mind your league’s rules, as he won’t be eligible at 3B before playing a predetermined amount of games at 3B. He has reportedly arrived to camp 25-30 lbs. lighter than last year’s 240 lbs. Despite playing in cavernous Comerica, I look for Miggy to approximate last year’s numbers and be a legit MVP contender. Obviously a top 5 fantasy pick.
Albert Pujols, Angels
Must be nice to put up a .299/37/99 line and have that be considered a down year! The 32 year-old Pujols missed time with a broken wrist in 2011, but returned ahead of schedule to lead the Cardinals through the postseason and their World Series championship. Although Pujols seems to lack the lineup protection he had in St. Louis, there is no reason to think he won’t be able to put up a .320/40/100+ season in the AL, especially with the DH allowing him some days off from 1B. Again, obviously a top 5 fantasy pick.
Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox
Although the HR barrage that was expected upon switching from Petco to Fenway never came to pass, Gonzalez still put up an excellent .338/27/117 in his first year for the Sawx. Entering his 2nd season with Boston, there should be a comfort level increase, and one has to think that Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Dustin Pedroia getting on base in front of him will result in plenty of RBI chances. (although he did lead the league in GIDP.) Another year removed from shoulder surgery, look for the 29 year-old A-Gonz to crack the 30 HR mark and provide market value for an early-round pick.
Joey Votto, Reds
What can you say about this guy? In 2011 he produced a .309/29/103 line, and for his career he gets on base at a .400 clip. He’s in his prime as he heads into his age 29 season and plays the game right, but I’m not sold on his surrounding cast, and that’s why he slots 4th in my breakdown. Still worth an early-round pick.
Prince Fielder, Tigers
Fielder can thank Victor Martinez’s ACL for ending his free agency with a bang, signing a 9 year, $214 million contract, and placing him in the same lineup as sluggers Miguel Cabrera, Alex Avila, and Delmon Young. Fielder raked his way to a .299/38/120 season in 2011 and got on base at a .415 clip. Despite playing in Comerica, there’s just so much lineup protection that you have to believe he can duplicate, if not exceed, those numbers. The change of leagues and the pressure of the big contract has him sliding to #5 in my analysis, but there is no question he ranks among the elite. An early round pick for the 28 year-old is an automatic.
Mark Texiera, Yankees
The lone entry in my near-elite tier, batting average is the only thing keeping the 31 year-old Tex from making it to elite status in my roundup. Since hitting .308 in 2008, he has declined each year, culminating in last year’s .248, a career low. Even if the average doesn’t pick up, you know in Yankee Stadium he will get more than a few cheap HR. In 2011 he parked 39 while driving in 110, so he remains a high draft pick, but falls just short of the top 5 at the position.
Eric Hosmer, Royals
A huge contributor to my championship run last season, the 22-year-old Hosmer made the Royals call him up by mashing AAA pitching for a .439 mark. He did not disappoint as a rookie, contributing immediately. He started strong, hit a rough patch, and finished out the season on an absolute tear, hitting 9 HR and batting .352 over his final 150 at-bats. I have read various columns that state Hosmer is overrated, but as part of an exciting young Royals team, there’s no reason to think he can’t improve on the .293/19/78, and could find himself alongside the elites when all is said and done. If you can grab Hosmer anytime after the 7th round, consider it a steal.
Paul Konerko, White Sox
The 36 year-old Konerko started 2011 off on a tear, but the second half of the season saw him battling nagging injuries, and only 9 of his 31 HR came after the All-star break. New Chisox manager Robin Ventura has pledged to get Konerko some days off with the DH slot, so there may be reason to believe that Konerko can come close to duplicating his .300/31/105 marks, especially if Adam Dunn and Alex Rios bounce back from miserable seasons. A mid-round pick could yield excellent value.
Lance Berkman, Cardinals
Another 36 year-old, Berkman put a sub-par 2010 to rest with an All-Star 2011, swinging to the tune of .301/31/94. Moving from the OF to 1B should keep Big Puma healthy, and despite the naysayers lamenting the loss of Pujols, if the starting cast in St. Louis can stay healthy, the Cards will score their share of runs. If you can get Berkman in the later middle rounds, don’t hesitate to scoop him up.
Michael Morse, Nationals
I have no problem with late bloomers. Morse followed up a solid 2010 season with full time at bats in 2011, and blasted his way to a .303/31/95. The 30 year-old Morse could use to cut down on the K’s (126 in 2011) but the power numbers seem to be legit. With Ryan Zimmerman and a hopefully resurgent Jayson Werth in the same lineup, you should expect more of the same in 2012, though he will spend the majority of his time in the OF.
Freddie Freeman, Braves
The 22 year-old Freeman looked overmatched early in 2011, but rebounded to finish with a very respectable .282/21/76. Another year of experience can’t hurt, although he MUST cut down on his strikeouts (142 in 2011). If he improves his plate discipline and the rest of the Braves lineup (I’m looking at you, Heyward) can stay healthy, Freeman can be counted on to be a fantasy starter. Target him in the later middle rounds.
Ryan Howard, Phillies
How the mighty have fallen. The big man is trying to come back from a ruptured Achilles tendon, and he’s already had a setback. If he comes back right, sure, he can help you with some power numbers, but his batting average is what it is, and he strikes out a TON. Under the best of circumstances, he was to miss most of April. Do you want to reach for him before the late middle rounds in hopes the 32 year-old comes back in May and puts up 30 jacks? I’m saying no.
Ike Davis, Mets
I really am pulling for this kid. Hope he made the right decision to not get surgery on his injured ankle and opt for extensive rehab. If the 24 year-old can make it through the spring with no setbacks, he could pick up where he left off when he rolled that ankle and end up being one of the top 10 1B in the league. A late round pick could pay major dividends.
Don’t forget players like Carlos Santana, Michael Cuddyer, Michael Young, etc. who have multipositional eligibility and could very well be a starting 1B for a fantasy team. Here’s some quick thoughts on other first basemen:
Adam Lind, Blue Jays – 20 HR and 80 RBI’s don’t cut it for a starting 1B job in fantasy, and it’s pretty clear that’s what you’re going to get with this guy, plus a ton of strikeouts. Late rounder.
Gaby Sanchez, Marlins – another .280/20/80 guy. If the other players in the Marlins lineup come to play, those numbers could grow. Buy low in hopes of being pleasantly surprised.
Justin Morneau, Twins – Sad story. I think that concussion in 2010 did him in. Don’t expect much.
Kendrys Morales, Angels – The slugger is said to be progressing well from his 2010 injury, and if he sees regular ABs at DH and spelling Pujols, he could be in for a huge year. Monitor his progress through the spring.
Mark Trumbo, Angels – The Angels are working him out at 3B. Playing time could be an issue. Keep track of him during the spring, as he showed last year he can be a cheap source of power with full time ABs.
Adam Dunn, White Sox – He can’t possibly be as bad in 2012 as he was in 2011, right?
Carlos Pena, Rays – Comes back to Tampa, where he had his best years. As long as you don’t mind a guy hitting in the .230s, he could be in line for 30 taters.
Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks – Skipped AAA and came up to the big club, where he showed nice power and the ability to take a walk, but also struck out a lot. Worth a look in very deep leagues.
Brandon Belt, Giants – will be given every opportunity to win the starting 1B job in the spring. Hasn’t lived up to his gaudy minor league numbers, but things should start to click eventually, no?
Justin Smoak, Mariners – Still young, but still plays for the Mariners. Look at this guy in the late rounds in deep leagues in the hopes he lives up to his potential.
Mitch Moreland, Rangers – Could be a significant fantasy contributor, but playing time likely to be an issue. Keep an eye on the Rangers’ camp. If someone goes down with an injury, Moreland could be a huge find.
So there you have it. Let me hear back from you, the reader. Leave me a comment, or better yet, follow me on twitter @phdinweed.